NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TXST LAM
Points 70.4 68.4
Total Points   138.8
Points From 2-Pointers 39.4 36.3
Points From 3-Pointers 14.4 17.1
Points From Free Throws 16.7 15.0
Shooting TXST LAM
Field Goals Made 24.5 23.8
Field Goals Attempted 55.5 56.6
Field Goal % 44.1% 42.1%
2 Pointers Made 19.7 18.2
2 Pointers Attempted 40.7 38.0
2 Point Shooting % 48.4% 47.8%
3 Pointers Made 4.8 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 14.8 18.6
3 Point Shooting % 32.4% 30.6%
Free Throws Made 16.7 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 23.7 20.8
Free Throw % 70.3% 72.1%
Ball Control TXST LAM
Rebounds 37.0 33.9
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 23.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.5 10.5
Turnovers 12.7 12.3
Blocked Shots 2.8 3.5
Steals 6.8 6.6
Fouls 16.3 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: Texas St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TXST LAM
Total Possessions 71.7
Effective Scoring Chances 70.5 69.8
% of Possessions with TXST LAM
2 Point Attempt 48.1% 45.6%
3 Point Attempt 17.5% 22.3%
Player Fouled 22.5% 22.8%
Turnover 17.7% 17.2%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 9.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken TXST LAM
Shot Blocked 6.2% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 32.8% 29.1%