NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring OHIO CHS
Points 77.4 65.3
Total Points   142.7
Points From 2-Pointers 37.0 32.3
Points From 3-Pointers 25.2 17.1
Points From Free Throws 15.2 16.0
Shooting OHIO CHS
Field Goals Made 26.9 21.8
Field Goals Attempted 55.3 54.7
Field Goal % 48.6% 39.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.5 16.1
2 Pointers Attempted 32.3 36.2
2 Point Shooting % 57.3% 44.5%
3 Pointers Made 8.4 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 23.1 18.5
3 Point Shooting % 36.5% 30.8%
Free Throws Made 15.2 16.0
Free Throws Attempted 20.5 22.6
Free Throw % 74.1% 70.5%
Ball Control OHIO CHS
Rebounds 33.1 34.8
Rebounds - Defensive 23.3 21.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 13.2
Turnovers 10.7 12.7
Blocked Shots 3.4 3.1
Steals 6.1 6.3
Fouls 14.1 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Chicago St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats OHIO CHS
Total Possessions 68.9
Effective Scoring Chances 68.0 69.5
% of Possessions with OHIO CHS
2 Point Attempt 40.3% 43.4%
3 Point Attempt 28.9% 22.1%
Player Fouled 23.6% 20.5%
Turnover 15.5% 18.4%
Opponent Steal 9.1% 8.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken OHIO CHS
Shot Blocked 5.7% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 31.3% 36.2%