NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TXST USM
Points 67.0 66.4
Total Points   133.4
Points From 2-Pointers 38.6 33.9
Points From 3-Pointers 13.1 16.3
Points From Free Throws 15.3 16.3
Shooting TXST USM
Field Goals Made 23.7 22.4
Field Goals Attempted 57.2 52.6
Field Goal % 41.4% 42.5%
2 Pointers Made 19.3 16.9
2 Pointers Attempted 44.0 35.8
2 Point Shooting % 43.8% 47.4%
3 Pointers Made 4.4 5.4
3 Pointers Attempted 13.1 16.8
3 Point Shooting % 33.3% 32.3%
Free Throws Made 15.3 16.3
Free Throws Attempted 21.8 23.1
Free Throw % 70.3% 70.5%
Ball Control TXST USM
Rebounds 36.1 34.7
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 26.1
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 8.6
Turnovers 11.5 12.7
Blocked Shots 2.7 4.9
Steals 8.3 6.8
Fouls 16.0 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: S Mississippi

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TXST USM
Total Possessions 71.1
Effective Scoring Chances 70.2 67.0
% of Possessions with TXST USM
2 Point Attempt 52.6% 44.3%
3 Point Attempt 15.7% 20.8%
Player Fouled 22.2% 22.4%
Turnover 16.2% 17.9%
Opponent Steal 9.6% 11.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken TXST USM
Shot Blocked 9.4% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 29.0% 25.3%