NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MTST APP
Points 67.3 79.0
Total Points   146.3
Points From 2-Pointers 33.4 48.2
Points From 3-Pointers 24.7 16.6
Points From Free Throws 9.2 14.2
Shooting MTST APP
Field Goals Made 24.9 29.6
Field Goals Attempted 63.4 59.7
Field Goal % 39.4% 49.6%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 24.1
2 Pointers Attempted 40.1 43.7
2 Point Shooting % 41.7% 55.2%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 5.5
3 Pointers Attempted 23.3 16.0
3 Point Shooting % 35.4% 34.4%
Free Throws Made 9.2 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 12.6 20.4
Free Throw % 72.4% 69.5%
Ball Control MTST APP
Rebounds 30.9 42.5
Rebounds - Defensive 23.9 32.6
Rebounds - Offensive 7.0 9.9
Turnovers 10.0 10.2
Blocked Shots 1.8 5.4
Steals 7.3 5.4
Fouls 15.6 12.5

Playing Style Advantage: Montana St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MTST APP
Total Possessions 73.0
Effective Scoring Chances 70.0 72.7
% of Possessions with MTST APP
2 Point Attempt 48.8% 52.3%
3 Point Attempt 28.3% 19.2%
Player Fouled 17.1% 21.4%
Turnover 13.7% 14.0%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 10.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MTST APP
Shot Blocked 9.1% 2.9%
Offensive Rebound 17.7% 29.3%