NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TXST ULL
Points 67.9 72.2
Total Points   140.1
Points From 2-Pointers 41.2 40.3
Points From 3-Pointers 9.2 17.2
Points From Free Throws 17.6 14.7
Shooting TXST ULL
Field Goals Made 23.6 25.9
Field Goals Attempted 52.0 57.3
Field Goal % 45.5% 45.1%
2 Pointers Made 20.6 20.2
2 Pointers Attempted 40.5 37.8
2 Point Shooting % 50.8% 53.3%
3 Pointers Made 3.1 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 11.5 19.6
3 Point Shooting % 26.6% 29.3%
Free Throws Made 17.6 14.7
Free Throws Attempted 25.0 19.9
Free Throw % 70.3% 73.6%
Ball Control TXST ULL
Rebounds 34.6 32.2
Rebounds - Defensive 24.6 22.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 9.7
Turnovers 14.4 11.9
Blocked Shots 3.0 3.9
Steals 7.0 8.1
Fouls 15.3 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: Texas St

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TXST ULL
Total Possessions 72.0
Effective Scoring Chances 67.6 69.8
% of Possessions with TXST ULL
2 Point Attempt 48.5% 45.6%
3 Point Attempt 13.8% 23.6%
Player Fouled 23.4% 21.2%
Turnover 20.0% 16.5%
Opponent Steal 11.3% 9.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken TXST ULL
Shot Blocked 6.9% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 30.8% 28.2%