NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TXST HAW
Points 65.8 69.8
Total Points   135.5
Points From 2-Pointers 42.0 33.6
Points From 3-Pointers 9.2 19.4
Points From Free Throws 14.6 16.8
Shooting TXST HAW
Field Goals Made 24.1 23.2
Field Goals Attempted 55.2 49.7
Field Goal % 43.6% 46.7%
2 Pointers Made 21.0 16.8
2 Pointers Attempted 45.2 30.1
2 Point Shooting % 46.4% 55.7%
3 Pointers Made 3.1 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 10.0 19.6
3 Point Shooting % 30.9% 32.9%
Free Throws Made 14.6 16.8
Free Throws Attempted 20.8 23.2
Free Throw % 70.3% 72.5%
Ball Control TXST HAW
Rebounds 31.2 33.6
Rebounds - Defensive 23.3 26.7
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 6.9
Turnovers 10.3 13.2
Blocked Shots 2.6 2.4
Steals 6.7 4.4
Fouls 17.5 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Texas St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TXST HAW
Total Possessions 70.3
Effective Scoring Chances 67.9 64.0
% of Possessions with TXST HAW
2 Point Attempt 57.1% 38.5%
3 Point Attempt 12.6% 25.1%
Player Fouled 23.0% 25.0%
Turnover 14.7% 18.8%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 9.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken TXST HAW
Shot Blocked 4.9% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 22.8% 22.9%