NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TXST UNLV
Points 62.5 73.6
Total Points   136.0
Points From 2-Pointers 36.8 39.5
Points From 3-Pointers 12.3 16.8
Points From Free Throws 13.4 17.3
Shooting TXST UNLV
Field Goals Made 22.5 25.3
Field Goals Attempted 55.7 52.0
Field Goal % 40.4% 48.7%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 19.7
2 Pointers Attempted 41.9 35.1
2 Point Shooting % 43.9% 56.2%
3 Pointers Made 4.1 5.6
3 Pointers Attempted 13.8 16.9
3 Point Shooting % 29.7% 33.2%
Free Throws Made 13.4 17.3
Free Throws Attempted 19.0 23.6
Free Throw % 70.3% 73.0%
Ball Control TXST UNLV
Rebounds 32.3 33.9
Rebounds - Defensive 21.7 25.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 8.6
Turnovers 12.1 11.0
Blocked Shots 3.0 4.7
Steals 6.3 6.0
Fouls 16.5 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: Texas St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TXST UNLV
Total Possessions 68.8
Effective Scoring Chances 67.3 66.5
% of Possessions with TXST UNLV
2 Point Attempt 51.5% 44.7%
3 Point Attempt 17.0% 21.5%
Player Fouled 20.0% 24.0%
Turnover 17.7% 16.0%
Opponent Steal 8.8% 9.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken TXST UNLV
Shot Blocked 9.1% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 29.7% 28.5%