NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MTST UNCG
Points 71.9 75.0
Total Points   147.0
Points From 2-Pointers 27.9 35.1
Points From 3-Pointers 30.3 26.9
Points From Free Throws 13.7 13.0
Shooting MTST UNCG
Field Goals Made 24.0 26.5
Field Goals Attempted 53.0 57.0
Field Goal % 45.3% 46.5%
2 Pointers Made 13.9 17.5
2 Pointers Attempted 27.3 34.1
2 Point Shooting % 51.1% 51.4%
3 Pointers Made 10.1 9.0
3 Pointers Attempted 25.7 22.9
3 Point Shooting % 39.3% 39.1%
Free Throws Made 13.7 13.0
Free Throws Attempted 19.0 17.9
Free Throw % 72.4% 72.8%
Ball Control MTST UNCG
Rebounds 29.4 35.9
Rebounds - Defensive 23.2 25.7
Rebounds - Offensive 6.2 10.2
Turnovers 11.4 11.1
Blocked Shots 1.7 2.4
Steals 6.6 6.4
Fouls 15.7 16.7

Playing Style Advantage: Montana St

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MTST UNCG
Total Possessions 69.7
Effective Scoring Chances 64.5 68.7
% of Possessions with MTST UNCG
2 Point Attempt 35.5% 42.3%
3 Point Attempt 33.5% 28.5%
Player Fouled 24.0% 22.6%
Turnover 16.4% 16.0%
Opponent Steal 9.2% 9.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken MTST UNCG
Shot Blocked 4.2% 3.2%
Offensive Rebound 19.5% 30.5%