NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TXST TROY
Points 68.6 72.9
Total Points   141.5
Points From 2-Pointers 38.6 32.5
Points From 3-Pointers 12.3 20.9
Points From Free Throws 17.6 19.5
Shooting TXST TROY
Field Goals Made 23.4 23.2
Field Goals Attempted 51.9 53.2
Field Goal % 45.1% 43.7%
2 Pointers Made 19.3 16.3
2 Pointers Attempted 39.7 32.4
2 Point Shooting % 48.6% 50.2%
3 Pointers Made 4.1 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 12.2 20.8
3 Point Shooting % 33.7% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 17.6 19.5
Free Throws Attempted 25.1 26.6
Free Throw % 70.3% 73.4%
Ball Control TXST TROY
Rebounds 33.1 33.6
Rebounds - Defensive 23.4 23.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.7 10.6
Turnovers 14.9 13.7
Blocked Shots 3.1 3.3
Steals 8.2 10.3
Fouls 17.2 17.8

Playing Style Advantage: Texas St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TXST TROY
Total Possessions 73.0
Effective Scoring Chances 67.8 69.9
% of Possessions with TXST TROY
2 Point Attempt 47.2% 38.2%
3 Point Attempt 14.5% 24.5%
Player Fouled 24.3% 23.5%
Turnover 20.5% 18.7%
Opponent Steal 14.2% 11.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken TXST TROY
Shot Blocked 6.4% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 29.7% 31.2%