NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PUR ILL
Points 81.0 75.5
Total Points   156.5
Points From 2-Pointers 45.8 39.5
Points From 3-Pointers 19.5 24.2
Points From Free Throws 15.7 11.8
Shooting PUR ILL
Field Goals Made 29.4 27.8
Field Goals Attempted 61.9 64.8
Field Goal % 47.5% 42.9%
2 Pointers Made 22.9 19.8
2 Pointers Attempted 45.5 39.8
2 Point Shooting % 50.4% 49.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 16.5 25.1
3 Point Shooting % 39.5% 32.1%
Free Throws Made 15.7 11.8
Free Throws Attempted 21.6 16.0
Free Throw % 73.0% 73.8%
Ball Control PUR ILL
Rebounds 40.2 34.8
Rebounds - Defensive 28.3 24.0
Rebounds - Offensive 11.9 10.8
Turnovers 7.5 7.2
Blocked Shots 2.8 2.5
Steals 4.1 4.1
Fouls 13.0 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PUR ILL
Total Possessions 70.8
Effective Scoring Chances 75.2 74.4
% of Possessions with PUR ILL
2 Point Attempt 54.4% 48.0%
3 Point Attempt 19.7% 30.3%
Player Fouled 22.1% 18.3%
Turnover 10.6% 10.2%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken PUR ILL
Shot Blocked 3.8% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 33.1% 27.7%