NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PUR IOWA
Points 87.9 72.7
Total Points   160.6
Points From 2-Pointers 44.0 42.3
Points From 3-Pointers 24.9 19.4
Points From Free Throws 18.9 11.0
Shooting PUR IOWA
Field Goals Made 30.3 27.6
Field Goals Attempted 59.3 64.3
Field Goal % 51.2% 43.0%
2 Pointers Made 22.0 21.2
2 Pointers Attempted 39.7 44.1
2 Point Shooting % 55.5% 48.0%
3 Pointers Made 8.3 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 19.6 20.2
3 Point Shooting % 42.4% 32.0%
Free Throws Made 18.9 11.0
Free Throws Attempted 25.9 14.2
Free Throw % 73.0% 77.4%
Ball Control PUR IOWA
Rebounds 43.2 27.9
Rebounds - Defensive 30.2 20.0
Rebounds - Offensive 13.0 7.9
Turnovers 9.6 7.5
Blocked Shots 3.1 2.7
Steals 4.9 5.6
Fouls 12.4 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: Purdue

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PUR IOWA
Total Possessions 72.1
Effective Scoring Chances 75.5 72.4
% of Possessions with PUR IOWA
2 Point Attempt 46.1% 54.3%
3 Point Attempt 22.7% 24.9%
Player Fouled 23.6% 17.2%
Turnover 13.3% 10.4%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken PUR IOWA
Shot Blocked 4.3% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 39.3% 20.6%