NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PUR IND
Points 79.4 66.1
Total Points   145.5
Points From 2-Pointers 36.4 41.7
Points From 3-Pointers 25.7 15.4
Points From Free Throws 17.3 9.0
Shooting PUR IND
Field Goals Made 26.7 26.0
Field Goals Attempted 59.7 60.2
Field Goal % 44.8% 43.2%
2 Pointers Made 18.2 20.8
2 Pointers Attempted 37.1 42.7
2 Point Shooting % 49.0% 48.8%
3 Pointers Made 8.6 5.1
3 Pointers Attempted 22.6 17.5
3 Point Shooting % 37.9% 29.5%
Free Throws Made 17.3 9.0
Free Throws Attempted 23.8 13.6
Free Throw % 73.0% 65.9%
Ball Control PUR IND
Rebounds 42.3 30.9
Rebounds - Defensive 28.9 23.2
Rebounds - Offensive 13.4 7.7
Turnovers 8.7 9.3
Blocked Shots 2.9 2.6
Steals 6.1 4.5
Fouls 12.9 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: Purdue

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PUR IND
Total Possessions 69.9
Effective Scoring Chances 74.6 68.3
% of Possessions with PUR IND
2 Point Attempt 44.1% 54.2%
3 Point Attempt 26.8% 22.2%
Player Fouled 24.2% 18.4%
Turnover 12.4% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken PUR IND
Shot Blocked 4.4% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 36.5% 21.0%