NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ALCN MVSU
Points 78.3 62.1
Total Points   140.4
Points From 2-Pointers 43.0 31.5
Points From 3-Pointers 17.1 19.1
Points From Free Throws 18.2 11.5
Shooting ALCN MVSU
Field Goals Made 27.2 22.1
Field Goals Attempted 55.1 52.1
Field Goal % 49.3% 42.5%
2 Pointers Made 21.5 15.8
2 Pointers Attempted 40.5 32.7
2 Point Shooting % 53.0% 48.2%
3 Pointers Made 5.7 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 14.6 19.4
3 Point Shooting % 39.0% 32.9%
Free Throws Made 18.2 11.5
Free Throws Attempted 25.2 17.4
Free Throw % 72.2% 66.0%
Ball Control ALCN MVSU
Rebounds 37.8 27.6
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 19.2
Rebounds - Offensive 12.8 8.4
Turnovers 9.7 12.9
Blocked Shots 1.8 2.6
Steals 7.5 5.6
Fouls 15.1 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Miss Val St

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ALCN MVSU
Total Possessions 67.9
Effective Scoring Chances 71.1 63.4
% of Possessions with ALCN MVSU
2 Point Attempt 49.6% 42.4%
3 Point Attempt 17.9% 25.2%
Player Fouled 22.5% 22.2%
Turnover 14.2% 19.0%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 11.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken ALCN MVSU
Shot Blocked 5.0% 3.3%
Offensive Rebound 40.0% 25.2%