NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BRAD XAV
Points 75.0 70.9
Total Points   146.0
Points From 2-Pointers 40.1 33.1
Points From 3-Pointers 23.7 19.8
Points From Free Throws 11.2 18.1
Shooting BRAD XAV
Field Goals Made 27.9 23.1
Field Goals Attempted 59.7 58.2
Field Goal % 46.8% 39.8%
2 Pointers Made 20.1 16.5
2 Pointers Attempted 37.1 39.1
2 Point Shooting % 54.0% 42.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 22.6 19.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.0% 34.6%
Free Throws Made 11.2 18.1
Free Throws Attempted 15.1 23.9
Free Throw % 74.3% 75.8%
Ball Control BRAD XAV
Rebounds 34.4 37.4
Rebounds - Defensive 25.7 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 12.1
Turnovers 10.7 11.0
Blocked Shots 5.2 2.0
Steals 6.1 6.4
Fouls 15.9 13.3

Playing Style Advantage: Xavier

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BRAD XAV
Total Possessions 71.4
Effective Scoring Chances 69.3 72.5
% of Possessions with BRAD XAV
2 Point Attempt 45.9% 45.7%
3 Point Attempt 27.9% 22.3%
Player Fouled 18.6% 22.3%
Turnover 15.1% 15.5%
Opponent Steal 9.0% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken BRAD XAV
Shot Blocked 3.5% 8.8%
Offensive Rebound 25.6% 32.1%