NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring WMU CMU
Points 68.5 68.5
Total Points   136.9
Points From 2-Pointers 32.1 36.9
Points From 3-Pointers 24.4 19.7
Points From Free Throws 12.0 11.9
Shooting WMU CMU
Field Goals Made 24.2 25.0
Field Goals Attempted 62.4 61.0
Field Goal % 38.7% 41.0%
2 Pointers Made 16.0 18.5
2 Pointers Attempted 35.4 39.0
2 Point Shooting % 45.3% 47.4%
3 Pointers Made 8.1 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 27.0 22.1
3 Point Shooting % 30.1% 29.7%
Free Throws Made 12.0 11.9
Free Throws Attempted 19.6 17.8
Free Throw % 61.5% 67.1%
Ball Control WMU CMU
Rebounds 43.8 37.9
Rebounds - Defensive 27.9 26.6
Rebounds - Offensive 15.9 11.2
Turnovers 10.5 9.4
Blocked Shots 3.2 2.5
Steals 4.1 5.5
Fouls 14.1 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: W Michigan

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats WMU CMU
Total Possessions 70.2
Effective Scoring Chances 75.6 72.0
% of Possessions with WMU CMU
2 Point Attempt 40.6% 47.1%
3 Point Attempt 31.0% 26.7%
Player Fouled 20.4% 20.1%
Turnover 15.0% 13.4%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken WMU CMU
Shot Blocked 4.1% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 37.4% 28.7%