NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BSU HOU
Points 60.1 71.3
Total Points   131.4
Points From 2-Pointers 23.2 38.6
Points From 3-Pointers 20.4 19.4
Points From Free Throws 16.6 13.4
Shooting BSU HOU
Field Goals Made 18.4 25.7
Field Goals Attempted 50.5 57.6
Field Goal % 36.4% 44.7%
2 Pointers Made 11.6 19.3
2 Pointers Attempted 28.4 36.7
2 Point Shooting % 40.8% 52.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 22.1 20.9
3 Point Shooting % 30.8% 30.8%
Free Throws Made 16.6 13.4
Free Throws Attempted 22.3 18.8
Free Throw % 74.3% 71.1%
Ball Control BSU HOU
Rebounds 35.4 34.4
Rebounds - Defensive 24.7 24.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.8 10.4
Turnovers 12.9 7.2
Blocked Shots 1.7 5.6
Steals 3.7 7.4
Fouls 14.4 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: Boise St

Expected Effect: +0.8 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BSU HOU
Total Possessions 66.2
Effective Scoring Chances 64.1 69.3
% of Possessions with BSU HOU
2 Point Attempt 35.9% 47.5%
3 Point Attempt 27.9% 27.1%
Player Fouled 24.2% 21.7%
Turnover 19.5% 10.9%
Opponent Steal 11.2% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken BSU HOU
Shot Blocked 9.9% 3.4%
Offensive Rebound 31.0% 29.6%