NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SCU SMC
Points 62.7 73.3
Total Points   135.9
Points From 2-Pointers 34.0 39.3
Points From 3-Pointers 16.1 20.3
Points From Free Throws 12.6 13.7
Shooting SCU SMC
Field Goals Made 22.4 26.4
Field Goals Attempted 53.5 58.8
Field Goal % 41.8% 44.9%
2 Pointers Made 17.0 19.6
2 Pointers Attempted 37.1 37.5
2 Point Shooting % 45.8% 52.4%
3 Pointers Made 5.4 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 16.4 21.4
3 Point Shooting % 32.7% 31.7%
Free Throws Made 12.6 13.7
Free Throws Attempted 18.1 20.5
Free Throw % 69.6% 67.1%
Ball Control SCU SMC
Rebounds 32.0 38.4
Rebounds - Defensive 24.7 26.8
Rebounds - Offensive 7.3 11.6
Turnovers 10.8 8.0
Blocked Shots 2.3 3.0
Steals 3.7 6.6
Fouls 15.4 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: Santa Clara

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SCU SMC
Total Possessions 67.9
Effective Scoring Chances 64.4 71.6
% of Possessions with SCU SMC
2 Point Attempt 48.6% 46.6%
3 Point Attempt 21.4% 26.6%
Player Fouled 23.6% 22.7%
Turnover 15.9% 11.7%
Opponent Steal 9.7% 5.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken SCU SMC
Shot Blocked 5.2% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 21.5% 32.0%