NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BSU SJSU
Points 79.9 63.0
Total Points   142.9
Points From 2-Pointers 37.3 33.8
Points From 3-Pointers 26.1 20.7
Points From Free Throws 16.5 8.5
Shooting BSU SJSU
Field Goals Made 27.3 23.8
Field Goals Attempted 56.0 54.8
Field Goal % 48.8% 43.5%
2 Pointers Made 18.6 16.9
2 Pointers Attempted 34.4 31.5
2 Point Shooting % 54.2% 53.6%
3 Pointers Made 8.7 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 21.6 23.2
3 Point Shooting % 40.2% 29.7%
Free Throws Made 16.5 8.5
Free Throws Attempted 22.2 12.4
Free Throw % 74.3% 68.6%
Ball Control BSU SJSU
Rebounds 39.2 25.7
Rebounds - Defensive 27.9 20.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.3 5.1
Turnovers 8.6 9.9
Blocked Shots 2.3 3.2
Steals 4.3 3.9
Fouls 13.1 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: San Jose St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BSU SJSU
Total Possessions 66.9
Effective Scoring Chances 69.6 62.1
% of Possessions with BSU SJSU
2 Point Attempt 43.3% 43.3%
3 Point Attempt 27.2% 31.8%
Player Fouled 22.6% 19.6%
Turnover 12.8% 14.8%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken BSU SJSU
Shot Blocked 5.8% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 35.4% 15.4%