NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SCU USD
Points 79.8 69.2
Total Points   149.0
Points From 2-Pointers 39.0 34.2
Points From 3-Pointers 23.7 18.6
Points From Free Throws 17.1 16.4
Shooting SCU USD
Field Goals Made 27.4 23.3
Field Goals Attempted 57.7 58.1
Field Goal % 47.5% 40.2%
2 Pointers Made 19.5 17.1
2 Pointers Attempted 34.3 38.0
2 Point Shooting % 56.8% 45.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 23.4 20.1
3 Point Shooting % 33.7% 30.9%
Free Throws Made 17.1 16.4
Free Throws Attempted 24.6 22.7
Free Throw % 69.6% 72.1%
Ball Control SCU USD
Rebounds 42.0 30.9
Rebounds - Defensive 29.4 22.1
Rebounds - Offensive 12.6 8.8
Turnovers 12.6 10.7
Blocked Shots 3.1 2.8
Steals 5.3 7.0
Fouls 16.2 18.1

Playing Style Advantage: San Diego

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SCU USD
Total Possessions 73.7
Effective Scoring Chances 73.6 71.8
% of Possessions with SCU USD
2 Point Attempt 39.3% 45.4%
3 Point Attempt 26.8% 24.0%
Player Fouled 24.5% 21.9%
Turnover 17.1% 14.5%
Opponent Steal 9.6% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken SCU USD
Shot Blocked 4.9% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 36.2% 23.0%