NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BEL SLU
Points 83.7 76.7
Total Points   160.5
Points From 2-Pointers 35.9 37.6
Points From 3-Pointers 32.9 24.4
Points From Free Throws 14.9 14.8
Shooting BEL SLU
Field Goals Made 28.9 26.9
Field Goals Attempted 58.5 58.6
Field Goal % 49.4% 46.0%
2 Pointers Made 17.9 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 30.6 35.7
2 Point Shooting % 58.6% 52.6%
3 Pointers Made 11.0 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 27.9 22.9
3 Point Shooting % 39.4% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 14.9 14.8
Free Throws Attempted 20.4 19.7
Free Throw % 73.1% 75.1%
Ball Control BEL SLU
Rebounds 32.5 34.4
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 25.7
Rebounds - Offensive 7.0 8.7
Turnovers 9.2 11.0
Blocked Shots 3.1 2.8
Steals 6.9 5.7
Fouls 14.8 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: Saint Louis

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BEL SLU
Total Possessions 72.8
Effective Scoring Chances 70.6 70.6
% of Possessions with BEL SLU
2 Point Attempt 37.9% 43.2%
3 Point Attempt 34.5% 27.6%
Player Fouled 21.6% 20.3%
Turnover 12.7% 15.1%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 9.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken BEL SLU
Shot Blocked 4.9% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 21.4% 25.5%