NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BEL EIU
Points 81.7 64.1
Total Points   145.8
Points From 2-Pointers 37.9 36.8
Points From 3-Pointers 28.6 16.6
Points From Free Throws 15.3 10.7
Shooting BEL EIU
Field Goals Made 28.4 23.9
Field Goals Attempted 53.2 62.7
Field Goal % 53.5% 38.2%
2 Pointers Made 18.9 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 29.5 44.0
2 Point Shooting % 64.1% 41.8%
3 Pointers Made 9.5 5.5
3 Pointers Attempted 23.6 18.7
3 Point Shooting % 40.3% 29.6%
Free Throws Made 15.3 10.7
Free Throws Attempted 20.9 14.5
Free Throw % 73.1% 73.7%
Ball Control BEL EIU
Rebounds 36.7 31.7
Rebounds - Defensive 30.6 21.8
Rebounds - Offensive 6.1 9.9
Turnovers 11.9 9.9
Blocked Shots 3.4 2.9
Steals 5.8 7.1
Fouls 11.9 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: E Illinois

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BEL EIU
Total Possessions 71.5
Effective Scoring Chances 65.6 71.5
% of Possessions with BEL EIU
2 Point Attempt 37.5% 53.2%
3 Point Attempt 30.0% 22.6%
Player Fouled 23.8% 16.7%
Turnover 16.7% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 9.9% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken BEL EIU
Shot Blocked 4.8% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 21.8% 24.4%