NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FRES USU
Points 66.2 80.7
Total Points   146.9
Points From 2-Pointers 36.3 45.6
Points From 3-Pointers 19.0 20.6
Points From Free Throws 10.9 14.5
Shooting FRES USU
Field Goals Made 24.5 29.7
Field Goals Attempted 56.9 57.3
Field Goal % 43.0% 51.8%
2 Pointers Made 18.1 22.8
2 Pointers Attempted 35.8 37.7
2 Point Shooting % 50.7% 60.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 21.2 19.6
3 Point Shooting % 30.0% 35.0%
Free Throws Made 10.9 14.5
Free Throws Attempted 15.6 20.1
Free Throw % 69.6% 72.5%
Ball Control FRES USU
Rebounds 29.0 36.6
Rebounds - Defensive 22.1 27.7
Rebounds - Offensive 6.8 8.8
Turnovers 10.9 8.7
Blocked Shots 1.5 5.0
Steals 5.2 5.6
Fouls 15.4 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: Fresno St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FRES USU
Total Possessions 69.7
Effective Scoring Chances 65.6 69.8
% of Possessions with FRES USU
2 Point Attempt 45.5% 47.6%
3 Point Attempt 26.9% 24.8%
Player Fouled 19.9% 22.1%
Turnover 15.7% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken FRES USU
Shot Blocked 8.9% 2.6%
Offensive Rebound 19.8% 28.5%