NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNCA UAB
Points 73.4 80.0
Total Points   153.4
Points From 2-Pointers 34.2 42.1
Points From 3-Pointers 23.9 18.1
Points From Free Throws 15.3 19.8
Shooting UNCA UAB
Field Goals Made 25.1 27.1
Field Goals Attempted 57.9 59.2
Field Goal % 43.3% 45.7%
2 Pointers Made 17.1 21.0
2 Pointers Attempted 36.2 41.2
2 Point Shooting % 47.3% 51.1%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 6.0
3 Pointers Attempted 21.7 18.0
3 Point Shooting % 36.6% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 15.3 19.8
Free Throws Attempted 20.3 26.6
Free Throw % 75.0% 74.3%
Ball Control UNCA UAB
Rebounds 31.4 39.6
Rebounds - Defensive 22.9 26.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 12.9
Turnovers 11.0 9.7
Blocked Shots 4.3 4.8
Steals 5.0 6.4
Fouls 16.2 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: UAB

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCA UAB
Total Possessions 72.1
Effective Scoring Chances 69.7 75.3
% of Possessions with UNCA UAB
2 Point Attempt 43.8% 47.5%
3 Point Attempt 26.3% 20.8%
Player Fouled 21.9% 22.4%
Turnover 15.2% 13.4%
Opponent Steal 8.8% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNCA UAB
Shot Blocked 8.3% 7.5%
Offensive Rebound 24.2% 36.0%