NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GONZ UCLA
Points 75.5 64.1
Total Points   139.6
Points From 2-Pointers 41.2 33.3
Points From 3-Pointers 20.5 17.6
Points From Free Throws 13.8 13.2
Shooting GONZ UCLA
Field Goals Made 27.4 22.5
Field Goals Attempted 56.6 57.9
Field Goal % 48.5% 38.9%
2 Pointers Made 20.6 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 37.5 40.5
2 Point Shooting % 55.0% 41.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 19.1 17.4
3 Point Shooting % 35.6% 33.8%
Free Throws Made 13.8 13.2
Free Throws Attempted 18.8 17.7
Free Throw % 73.6% 74.3%
Ball Control GONZ UCLA
Rebounds 37.1 32.7
Rebounds - Defensive 27.0 21.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 10.9
Turnovers 8.8 8.7
Blocked Shots 2.5 2.6
Steals 4.7 4.3
Fouls 15.1 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: Gonzaga

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GONZ UCLA
Total Possessions 66.9
Effective Scoring Chances 68.2 69.0
% of Possessions with GONZ UCLA
2 Point Attempt 48.0% 51.5%
3 Point Attempt 24.5% 22.1%
Player Fouled 23.5% 22.6%
Turnover 13.2% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken GONZ UCLA
Shot Blocked 4.5% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 31.7% 28.7%