NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNCA SCST
Points 76.3 67.3
Total Points   143.6
Points From 2-Pointers 32.1 33.5
Points From 3-Pointers 22.3 18.7
Points From Free Throws 21.9 15.2
Shooting UNCA SCST
Field Goals Made 23.5 23.0
Field Goals Attempted 49.1 61.4
Field Goal % 47.8% 37.4%
2 Pointers Made 16.0 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 28.6 41.9
2 Point Shooting % 56.0% 40.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 20.5 19.5
3 Point Shooting % 36.3% 32.0%
Free Throws Made 21.9 15.2
Free Throws Attempted 29.2 21.7
Free Throw % 75.0% 70.0%
Ball Control UNCA SCST
Rebounds 34.4 37.2
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 21.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.1 15.5
Turnovers 13.5 12.2
Blocked Shots 4.0 3.7
Steals 5.6 7.5
Fouls 14.5 21.1

Playing Style Advantage: S Car State

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCA SCST
Total Possessions 72.2
Effective Scoring Chances 66.8 75.6
% of Possessions with UNCA SCST
2 Point Attempt 35.0% 46.9%
3 Point Attempt 25.0% 21.8%
Player Fouled 29.2% 20.1%
Turnover 18.7% 16.8%
Opponent Steal 10.4% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNCA SCST
Shot Blocked 6.2% 8.2%
Offensive Rebound 27.3% 37.2%