NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UGA MSST
Points 69.8 77.6
Total Points   147.4
Points From 2-Pointers 33.1 43.0
Points From 3-Pointers 23.3 22.7
Points From Free Throws 13.4 11.9
Shooting UGA MSST
Field Goals Made 24.3 29.1
Field Goals Attempted 57.3 61.3
Field Goal % 42.5% 47.4%
2 Pointers Made 16.6 21.5
2 Pointers Attempted 31.2 38.2
2 Point Shooting % 53.1% 56.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 26.1 23.1
3 Point Shooting % 29.8% 32.7%
Free Throws Made 13.4 11.9
Free Throws Attempted 18.7 18.2
Free Throw % 71.6% 65.5%
Ball Control UGA MSST
Rebounds 32.1 39.4
Rebounds - Defensive 24.0 27.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.1 11.8
Turnovers 11.7 11.0
Blocked Shots 2.9 3.3
Steals 6.0 7.4
Fouls 13.5 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: Miss State

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UGA MSST
Total Possessions 72.2
Effective Scoring Chances 68.6 72.9
% of Possessions with UGA MSST
2 Point Attempt 38.2% 44.8%
3 Point Attempt 31.9% 27.1%
Player Fouled 20.8% 18.7%
Turnover 16.2% 15.3%
Opponent Steal 10.2% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken UGA MSST
Shot Blocked 5.5% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 22.7% 33.0%