NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CIT SCST
Points 70.7 68.6
Total Points   139.3
Points From 2-Pointers 35.8 37.9
Points From 3-Pointers 17.5 19.5
Points From Free Throws 17.5 11.2
Shooting CIT SCST
Field Goals Made 23.7 25.5
Field Goals Attempted 49.0 59.6
Field Goal % 48.4% 42.7%
2 Pointers Made 17.9 19.0
2 Pointers Attempted 31.0 40.2
2 Point Shooting % 57.7% 47.2%
3 Pointers Made 5.8 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 18.0 19.4
3 Point Shooting % 32.4% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 17.5 11.2
Free Throws Attempted 24.5 16.0
Free Throw % 71.4% 70.0%
Ball Control CIT SCST
Rebounds 32.9 32.9
Rebounds - Defensive 24.9 21.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 11.8
Turnovers 14.2 11.5
Blocked Shots 2.5 4.7
Steals 5.4 8.0
Fouls 13.3 18.4

Playing Style Advantage: Citadel

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CIT SCST
Total Possessions 69.9
Effective Scoring Chances 63.7 70.2
% of Possessions with CIT SCST
2 Point Attempt 38.8% 48.6%
3 Point Attempt 22.6% 23.4%
Player Fouled 26.3% 19.1%
Turnover 20.3% 16.5%
Opponent Steal 11.4% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken CIT SCST
Shot Blocked 7.9% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 27.7% 32.2%