NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CIT SAM
Points 70.0 85.6
Total Points   155.5
Points From 2-Pointers 36.3 42.3
Points From 3-Pointers 17.9 31.2
Points From Free Throws 15.7 12.1
Shooting CIT SAM
Field Goals Made 24.1 31.6
Field Goals Attempted 53.5 58.7
Field Goal % 45.1% 53.7%
2 Pointers Made 18.2 21.2
2 Pointers Attempted 34.6 33.3
2 Point Shooting % 52.5% 63.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 10.4
3 Pointers Attempted 18.9 25.5
3 Point Shooting % 31.6% 40.8%
Free Throws Made 15.7 12.1
Free Throws Attempted 22.1 17.0
Free Throw % 71.4% 70.7%
Ball Control CIT SAM
Rebounds 31.4 31.2
Rebounds - Defensive 22.5 23.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.9 7.5
Turnovers 14.6 10.9
Blocked Shots 2.6 4.9
Steals 5.6 8.6
Fouls 15.3 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: Samford

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CIT SAM
Total Possessions 72.5
Effective Scoring Chances 66.8 69.1
% of Possessions with CIT SAM
2 Point Attempt 41.5% 41.0%
3 Point Attempt 22.6% 31.4%
Player Fouled 23.4% 21.1%
Turnover 20.2% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 11.8% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken CIT SAM
Shot Blocked 8.5% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 27.4% 25.1%