NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNCA WCU
Points 72.0 74.9
Total Points   146.9
Points From 2-Pointers 36.4 38.4
Points From 3-Pointers 18.3 24.2
Points From Free Throws 17.3 12.3
Shooting UNCA WCU
Field Goals Made 24.3 27.3
Field Goals Attempted 56.5 62.8
Field Goal % 43.0% 43.4%
2 Pointers Made 18.2 19.2
2 Pointers Attempted 39.5 40.6
2 Point Shooting % 46.1% 47.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 17.0 22.2
3 Point Shooting % 35.8% 36.4%
Free Throws Made 17.3 12.3
Free Throws Attempted 23.1 17.6
Free Throw % 75.0% 70.0%
Ball Control UNCA WCU
Rebounds 33.8 39.9
Rebounds - Defensive 26.6 28.2
Rebounds - Offensive 7.2 11.7
Turnovers 8.1 9.1
Blocked Shots 3.5 2.9
Steals 4.2 3.6
Fouls 13.4 17.9

Playing Style Advantage: NC-Asheville

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCA WCU
Total Possessions 71.0
Effective Scoring Chances 70.1 73.6
% of Possessions with UNCA WCU
2 Point Attempt 49.8% 48.3%
3 Point Attempt 21.4% 26.4%
Player Fouled 25.2% 18.9%
Turnover 11.4% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 5.1% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNCA WCU
Shot Blocked 4.8% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 20.3% 30.6%