NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CIT WCU
Points 67.6 77.2
Total Points   144.7
Points From 2-Pointers 39.4 42.8
Points From 3-Pointers 14.3 25.2
Points From Free Throws 13.8 9.2
Shooting CIT WCU
Field Goals Made 24.5 29.8
Field Goals Attempted 56.2 60.8
Field Goal % 43.5% 49.0%
2 Pointers Made 19.7 21.4
2 Pointers Attempted 41.3 38.8
2 Point Shooting % 47.8% 55.3%
3 Pointers Made 4.8 8.4
3 Pointers Attempted 14.9 22.0
3 Point Shooting % 31.9% 38.1%
Free Throws Made 13.8 9.2
Free Throws Attempted 19.4 13.1
Free Throw % 71.4% 70.0%
Ball Control CIT WCU
Rebounds 31.5 36.3
Rebounds - Defensive 24.3 27.5
Rebounds - Offensive 7.1 8.8
Turnovers 8.6 8.7
Blocked Shots 2.2 3.7
Steals 4.0 3.8
Fouls 12.3 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: Citadel

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CIT WCU
Total Possessions 68.8
Effective Scoring Chances 67.4 68.9
% of Possessions with CIT WCU
2 Point Attempt 53.3% 49.4%
3 Point Attempt 19.3% 28.0%
Player Fouled 22.6% 17.9%
Turnover 12.4% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 5.6% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken CIT WCU
Shot Blocked 6.1% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 20.6% 26.5%