NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SAM WCU
Points 79.9 76.3
Total Points   156.2
Points From 2-Pointers 40.7 38.0
Points From 3-Pointers 22.8 24.0
Points From Free Throws 16.4 14.3
Shooting SAM WCU
Field Goals Made 28.0 27.0
Field Goals Attempted 59.3 60.7
Field Goal % 47.1% 44.5%
2 Pointers Made 20.4 19.0
2 Pointers Attempted 39.6 38.3
2 Point Shooting % 51.5% 49.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 8.0
3 Pointers Attempted 19.7 22.4
3 Point Shooting % 38.5% 35.7%
Free Throws Made 16.4 14.3
Free Throws Attempted 23.2 20.4
Free Throw % 70.7% 70.0%
Ball Control SAM WCU
Rebounds 33.3 38.9
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 27.4
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 11.6
Turnovers 8.7 11.9
Blocked Shots 3.4 3.0
Steals 6.4 4.0
Fouls 15.9 18.1

Playing Style Advantage: W Carolina

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SAM WCU
Total Possessions 73.9
Effective Scoring Chances 73.0 73.6
% of Possessions with SAM WCU
2 Point Attempt 47.7% 44.1%
3 Point Attempt 23.8% 25.8%
Player Fouled 24.5% 21.6%
Turnover 11.8% 16.1%
Opponent Steal 5.3% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken SAM WCU
Shot Blocked 5.1% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 22.2% 31.2%