NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LT ALA
Points 73.7 85.9
Total Points   159.6
Points From 2-Pointers 35.7 33.1
Points From 3-Pointers 18.7 35.1
Points From Free Throws 19.3 17.7
Shooting LT ALA
Field Goals Made 24.1 28.2
Field Goals Attempted 59.7 62.1
Field Goal % 40.3% 45.4%
2 Pointers Made 17.9 16.5
2 Pointers Attempted 40.2 32.5
2 Point Shooting % 44.4% 50.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 11.7
3 Pointers Attempted 19.5 29.6
3 Point Shooting % 31.9% 39.5%
Free Throws Made 19.3 17.7
Free Throws Attempted 27.5 23.2
Free Throw % 70.3% 76.4%
Ball Control LT ALA
Rebounds 37.5 39.0
Rebounds - Defensive 25.1 27.6
Rebounds - Offensive 12.4 11.5
Turnovers 10.7 10.0
Blocked Shots 4.7 5.0
Steals 6.7 6.4
Fouls 16.6 17.6

Playing Style Advantage: Alabama

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LT ALA
Total Possessions 74.4
Effective Scoring Chances 76.1 75.9
% of Possessions with LT ALA
2 Point Attempt 45.3% 37.0%
3 Point Attempt 22.0% 33.8%
Player Fouled 23.7% 22.3%
Turnover 14.3% 13.5%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken LT ALA
Shot Blocked 8.3% 8.1%
Offensive Rebound 31.0% 31.4%