NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BUT CAL
Points 79.2 75.6
Total Points   154.9
Points From 2-Pointers 37.5 40.6
Points From 3-Pointers 27.1 25.0
Points From Free Throws 14.6 10.0
Shooting BUT CAL
Field Goals Made 27.8 28.6
Field Goals Attempted 61.7 66.9
Field Goal % 45.1% 42.8%
2 Pointers Made 18.8 20.3
2 Pointers Attempted 37.1 41.2
2 Point Shooting % 50.6% 49.2%
3 Pointers Made 9.0 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 24.6 25.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.7% 32.5%
Free Throws Made 14.6 10.0
Free Throws Attempted 18.3 13.7
Free Throw % 80.1% 73.2%
Ball Control BUT CAL
Rebounds 37.0 38.6
Rebounds - Defensive 29.4 28.0
Rebounds - Offensive 7.7 10.6
Turnovers 9.5 9.5
Blocked Shots 3.0 3.2
Steals 4.7 6.6
Fouls 12.0 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: Butler

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BUT CAL
Total Possessions 74.2
Effective Scoring Chances 72.4 75.3
% of Possessions with BUT CAL
2 Point Attempt 44.6% 47.9%
3 Point Attempt 29.6% 29.9%
Player Fouled 19.1% 16.2%
Turnover 12.8% 12.8%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 6.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken BUT CAL
Shot Blocked 4.8% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 21.5% 26.6%