NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SAM HCU
Points 99.7 68.5
Total Points   168.1
Points From 2-Pointers 54.1 37.6
Points From 3-Pointers 30.7 14.2
Points From Free Throws 14.9 16.7
Shooting SAM HCU
Field Goals Made 37.3 23.5
Field Goals Attempted 64.5 56.1
Field Goal % 57.8% 42.0%
2 Pointers Made 27.0 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 39.6 40.2
2 Point Shooting % 68.2% 46.8%
3 Pointers Made 10.2 4.7
3 Pointers Attempted 24.8 15.9
3 Point Shooting % 41.2% 29.8%
Free Throws Made 14.9 16.7
Free Throws Attempted 21.0 26.1
Free Throw % 70.7% 64.1%
Ball Control SAM HCU
Rebounds 36.2 32.3
Rebounds - Defensive 26.4 21.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 11.2
Turnovers 9.5 16.2
Blocked Shots 5.5 2.1
Steals 10.0 5.5
Fouls 17.4 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Samford

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SAM HCU
Total Possessions 77.2
Effective Scoring Chances 77.5 72.2
% of Possessions with SAM HCU
2 Point Attempt 45.1% 44.4%
3 Point Attempt 28.3% 17.5%
Player Fouled 19.5% 22.6%
Turnover 12.3% 21.0%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 12.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken SAM HCU
Shot Blocked 3.8% 8.6%
Offensive Rebound 31.7% 29.8%