NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BRY MSM
Points 74.8 70.4
Total Points   145.2
Points From 2-Pointers 38.4 37.4
Points From 3-Pointers 24.4 20.9
Points From Free Throws 12.0 12.1
Shooting BRY MSM
Field Goals Made 27.3 25.7
Field Goals Attempted 61.7 65.3
Field Goal % 44.2% 39.3%
2 Pointers Made 19.2 18.7
2 Pointers Attempted 37.9 43.7
2 Point Shooting % 50.6% 42.8%
3 Pointers Made 8.1 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 23.8 21.6
3 Point Shooting % 34.1% 32.3%
Free Throws Made 12.0 12.1
Free Throws Attempted 17.8 16.8
Free Throw % 67.6% 71.9%
Ball Control BRY MSM
Rebounds 36.9 42.2
Rebounds - Defensive 30.0 30.6
Rebounds - Offensive 6.9 11.7
Turnovers 11.3 12.7
Blocked Shots 5.2 3.6
Steals 7.6 6.8
Fouls 12.7 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Bryant

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BRY MSM
Total Possessions 76.5
Effective Scoring Chances 72.2 75.5
% of Possessions with BRY MSM
2 Point Attempt 44.7% 48.4%
3 Point Attempt 28.1% 23.9%
Player Fouled 18.8% 16.6%
Turnover 14.7% 16.6%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 9.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken BRY MSM
Shot Blocked 5.6% 8.6%
Offensive Rebound 18.5% 28.0%