NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSST TTU
Points 74.3 72.2
Total Points   146.5
Points From 2-Pointers 41.2 33.5
Points From 3-Pointers 21.4 24.4
Points From Free Throws 11.7 14.3
Shooting MSST TTU
Field Goals Made 27.7 24.9
Field Goals Attempted 58.6 56.6
Field Goal % 47.3% 44.0%
2 Pointers Made 20.6 16.8
2 Pointers Attempted 36.1 30.7
2 Point Shooting % 57.2% 54.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 22.5 25.9
3 Point Shooting % 31.6% 31.3%
Free Throws Made 11.7 14.3
Free Throws Attempted 17.8 18.2
Free Throw % 65.5% 78.5%
Ball Control MSST TTU
Rebounds 36.8 31.3
Rebounds - Defensive 24.4 22.0
Rebounds - Offensive 12.4 9.3
Turnovers 11.1 10.7
Blocked Shots 3.1 2.1
Steals 6.4 5.7
Fouls 14.6 13.7

Playing Style Advantage: Miss State

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSST TTU
Total Possessions 69.2
Effective Scoring Chances 70.5 67.8
% of Possessions with MSST TTU
2 Point Attempt 43.8% 38.5%
3 Point Attempt 27.3% 32.5%
Player Fouled 19.8% 21.1%
Turnover 16.0% 15.5%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSST TTU
Shot Blocked 3.8% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 36.0% 27.7%