NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DRKE ILST
Points 75.3 65.6
Total Points   140.8
Points From 2-Pointers 38.5 34.7
Points From 3-Pointers 24.0 17.0
Points From Free Throws 12.7 13.8
Shooting DRKE ILST
Field Goals Made 27.3 23.0
Field Goals Attempted 56.8 53.5
Field Goal % 48.0% 43.0%
2 Pointers Made 19.3 17.4
2 Pointers Attempted 33.6 33.7
2 Point Shooting % 57.4% 51.5%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 23.2 19.8
3 Point Shooting % 34.5% 28.6%
Free Throws Made 12.7 13.8
Free Throws Attempted 17.0 19.0
Free Throw % 74.8% 73.0%
Ball Control DRKE ILST
Rebounds 32.8 32.6
Rebounds - Defensive 25.6 24.7
Rebounds - Offensive 7.2 7.9
Turnovers 8.1 10.4
Blocked Shots 1.7 1.8
Steals 4.8 4.5
Fouls 15.7 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois St

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DRKE ILST
Total Possessions 68.0
Effective Scoring Chances 67.1 65.4
% of Possessions with DRKE ILST
2 Point Attempt 44.2% 44.0%
3 Point Attempt 30.6% 25.9%
Player Fouled 22.2% 23.2%
Turnover 11.9% 15.3%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken DRKE ILST
Shot Blocked 3.3% 3.1%
Offensive Rebound 22.6% 23.5%