NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SAM UNCG
Points 80.0 75.8
Total Points   155.7
Points From 2-Pointers 30.7 30.2
Points From 3-Pointers 32.0 31.8
Points From Free Throws 17.2 13.8
Shooting SAM UNCG
Field Goals Made 26.0 25.7
Field Goals Attempted 54.5 57.9
Field Goal % 47.8% 44.4%
2 Pointers Made 15.4 15.1
2 Pointers Attempted 28.3 30.2
2 Point Shooting % 54.2% 50.0%
3 Pointers Made 10.7 10.6
3 Pointers Attempted 26.1 27.7
3 Point Shooting % 40.8% 38.2%
Free Throws Made 17.2 13.8
Free Throws Attempted 24.3 18.9
Free Throw % 70.7% 72.8%
Ball Control SAM UNCG
Rebounds 32.5 35.1
Rebounds - Defensive 23.7 23.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 11.4
Turnovers 11.7 13.3
Blocked Shots 2.6 3.0
Steals 7.4 7.2
Fouls 16.3 18.3

Playing Style Advantage: Samford

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SAM UNCG
Total Possessions 72.3
Effective Scoring Chances 69.4 70.4
% of Possessions with SAM UNCG
2 Point Attempt 34.4% 35.6%
3 Point Attempt 31.8% 32.7%
Player Fouled 25.4% 22.5%
Turnover 16.2% 18.4%
Opponent Steal 10.0% 10.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken SAM UNCG
Shot Blocked 5.2% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 27.1% 32.5%