NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSST MIZZ
Points 76.9 67.4
Total Points   144.3
Points From 2-Pointers 35.9 34.3
Points From 3-Pointers 23.3 19.4
Points From Free Throws 17.8 13.7
Shooting MSST MIZZ
Field Goals Made 25.7 23.6
Field Goals Attempted 55.1 55.1
Field Goal % 46.6% 42.8%
2 Pointers Made 17.9 17.1
2 Pointers Attempted 32.5 31.4
2 Point Shooting % 55.3% 54.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 22.7 23.8
3 Point Shooting % 34.2% 27.2%
Free Throws Made 17.8 13.7
Free Throws Attempted 27.1 17.4
Free Throw % 65.5% 78.9%
Ball Control MSST MIZZ
Rebounds 40.0 28.2
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 20.2
Rebounds - Offensive 14.5 7.9
Turnovers 12.2 12.1
Blocked Shots 2.6 4.0
Steals 7.3 6.9
Fouls 15.3 17.9

Playing Style Advantage: Missouri

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSST MIZZ
Total Possessions 70.2
Effective Scoring Chances 72.5 66.0
% of Possessions with MSST MIZZ
2 Point Attempt 37.6% 39.6%
3 Point Attempt 26.3% 30.0%
Player Fouled 25.5% 21.7%
Turnover 17.4% 17.3%
Opponent Steal 9.9% 10.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSST MIZZ
Shot Blocked 7.4% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 41.7% 23.7%