NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FRES PAC
Points 79.6 65.7
Total Points   145.3
Points From 2-Pointers 41.6 34.8
Points From 3-Pointers 24.1 19.3
Points From Free Throws 13.8 11.6
Shooting FRES PAC
Field Goals Made 28.9 23.8
Field Goals Attempted 55.0 54.4
Field Goal % 52.5% 43.8%
2 Pointers Made 20.8 17.4
2 Pointers Attempted 32.1 34.9
2 Point Shooting % 64.7% 49.8%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 22.8 19.5
3 Point Shooting % 35.2% 33.0%
Free Throws Made 13.8 11.6
Free Throws Attempted 19.8 17.9
Free Throw % 69.6% 65.1%
Ball Control FRES PAC
Rebounds 35.9 27.8
Rebounds - Defensive 27.7 21.3
Rebounds - Offensive 8.3 6.4
Turnovers 10.0 10.1
Blocked Shots 2.5 2.7
Steals 5.7 4.7
Fouls 15.6 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: Fresno St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FRES PAC
Total Possessions 68.8
Effective Scoring Chances 67.1 65.1
% of Possessions with FRES PAC
2 Point Attempt 41.1% 45.8%
3 Point Attempt 29.2% 25.6%
Player Fouled 21.7% 22.6%
Turnover 14.5% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken FRES PAC
Shot Blocked 5.0% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 27.9% 18.9%