NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BRY MW
Points 69.8 64.8
Total Points   134.6
Points From 2-Pointers 38.9 28.2
Points From 3-Pointers 18.4 21.7
Points From Free Throws 12.5 14.9
Shooting BRY MW
Field Goals Made 25.6 21.3
Field Goals Attempted 57.4 59.4
Field Goal % 44.5% 35.9%
2 Pointers Made 19.5 14.1
2 Pointers Attempted 38.6 34.9
2 Point Shooting % 50.5% 40.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 18.9 24.5
3 Point Shooting % 32.5% 29.5%
Free Throws Made 12.5 14.9
Free Throws Attempted 18.5 19.9
Free Throw % 67.6% 74.8%
Ball Control BRY MW
Rebounds 42.0 33.3
Rebounds - Defensive 33.0 26.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 7.2
Turnovers 15.2 12.0
Blocked Shots 5.6 3.2
Steals 6.1 10.0
Fouls 14.8 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Merrimack

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BRY MW
Total Possessions 75.4
Effective Scoring Chances 69.2 70.5
% of Possessions with BRY MW
2 Point Attempt 45.0% 41.1%
3 Point Attempt 22.0% 28.9%
Player Fouled 20.2% 19.7%
Turnover 20.1% 16.0%
Opponent Steal 13.3% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken BRY MW
Shot Blocked 5.6% 9.9%
Offensive Rebound 25.7% 17.8%