NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GONZ ARIZ
Points 79.5 82.1
Total Points   161.6
Points From 2-Pointers 48.3 43.5
Points From 3-Pointers 19.9 23.6
Points From Free Throws 11.2 15.0
Shooting GONZ ARIZ
Field Goals Made 30.8 29.6
Field Goals Attempted 64.2 65.3
Field Goal % 48.0% 45.3%
2 Pointers Made 24.2 21.7
2 Pointers Attempted 44.6 44.2
2 Point Shooting % 54.2% 49.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 19.6 21.1
3 Point Shooting % 33.9% 37.3%
Free Throws Made 11.2 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 15.3 21.1
Free Throw % 73.6% 71.0%
Ball Control GONZ ARIZ
Rebounds 34.5 39.8
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 26.4
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 13.4
Turnovers 9.9 9.5
Blocked Shots 3.8 3.0
Steals 5.9 6.2
Fouls 15.3 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: Gonzaga

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GONZ ARIZ
Total Possessions 74.3
Effective Scoring Chances 73.4 78.2
% of Possessions with GONZ ARIZ
2 Point Attempt 52.8% 49.5%
3 Point Attempt 23.2% 23.7%
Player Fouled 18.3% 20.6%
Turnover 13.3% 12.7%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken GONZ ARIZ
Shot Blocked 4.6% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 25.4% 34.4%