NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSST KSU
Points 72.5 66.9
Total Points   139.4
Points From 2-Pointers 37.6 32.6
Points From 3-Pointers 19.3 19.2
Points From Free Throws 15.6 15.1
Shooting MSST KSU
Field Goals Made 25.2 22.7
Field Goals Attempted 59.7 53.1
Field Goal % 42.3% 42.8%
2 Pointers Made 18.8 16.3
2 Pointers Attempted 37.8 29.9
2 Point Shooting % 49.8% 54.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 21.9 23.2
3 Point Shooting % 29.3% 27.7%
Free Throws Made 15.6 15.1
Free Throws Attempted 23.8 20.9
Free Throw % 65.5% 71.9%
Ball Control MSST KSU
Rebounds 37.9 34.8
Rebounds - Defensive 23.9 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 13.9 9.6
Turnovers 10.5 14.6
Blocked Shots 3.5 3.3
Steals 9.2 5.2
Fouls 16.1 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Miss State

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSST KSU
Total Possessions 71.4
Effective Scoring Chances 74.8 66.4
% of Possessions with MSST KSU
2 Point Attempt 43.6% 36.3%
3 Point Attempt 25.3% 28.1%
Player Fouled 22.6% 22.6%
Turnover 14.7% 20.5%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 12.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSST KSU
Shot Blocked 6.3% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 35.6% 28.6%