NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BUFF BALL
Points 68.8 75.8
Total Points   144.6
Points From 2-Pointers 37.8 36.1
Points From 3-Pointers 20.9 23.4
Points From Free Throws 10.1 16.3
Shooting BUFF BALL
Field Goals Made 25.9 25.9
Field Goals Attempted 60.4 59.0
Field Goal % 42.9% 43.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.9 18.1
2 Pointers Attempted 37.4 38.2
2 Point Shooting % 50.6% 47.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 23.0 20.8
3 Point Shooting % 30.3% 37.5%
Free Throws Made 10.1 16.3
Free Throws Attempted 14.1 20.9
Free Throw % 71.6% 77.8%
Ball Control BUFF BALL
Rebounds 34.6 37.2
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 27.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 9.8
Turnovers 11.5 10.2
Blocked Shots 4.6 2.8
Steals 5.9 5.3
Fouls 15.5 11.5

Playing Style Advantage: Buffalo

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BUFF BALL
Total Possessions 71.7
Effective Scoring Chances 69.3 71.3
% of Possessions with BUFF BALL
2 Point Attempt 45.6% 45.9%
3 Point Attempt 28.1% 25.0%
Player Fouled 16.1% 21.6%
Turnover 16.1% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken BUFF BALL
Shot Blocked 4.8% 7.7%
Offensive Rebound 24.9% 27.7%