NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BUFF CONN
Points 52.2 92.2
Total Points   144.5
Points From 2-Pointers 27.8 49.3
Points From 3-Pointers 14.4 27.4
Points From Free Throws 10.0 15.6
Shooting BUFF CONN
Field Goals Made 18.7 33.8
Field Goals Attempted 58.1 63.2
Field Goal % 32.2% 53.5%
2 Pointers Made 13.9 24.7
2 Pointers Attempted 38.1 39.3
2 Point Shooting % 36.5% 62.7%
3 Pointers Made 4.8 9.1
3 Pointers Attempted 20.0 23.9
3 Point Shooting % 24.1% 38.2%
Free Throws Made 10.0 15.6
Free Throws Attempted 13.9 20.7
Free Throw % 71.6% 75.1%
Ball Control BUFF CONN
Rebounds 26.3 46.6
Rebounds - Defensive 18.4 32.8
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 13.8
Turnovers 11.5 7.4
Blocked Shots 3.2 5.7
Steals 4.2 6.4
Fouls 13.9 12.0

Playing Style Advantage: Connecticut

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BUFF CONN
Total Possessions 69.4
Effective Scoring Chances 65.7 75.8
% of Possessions with BUFF CONN
2 Point Attempt 47.9% 46.6%
3 Point Attempt 25.1% 28.2%
Player Fouled 17.3% 20.0%
Turnover 16.6% 10.6%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken BUFF CONN
Shot Blocked 9.2% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 19.3% 42.8%