NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring STAN SJSU
Points 80.5 70.3
Total Points   150.9
Points From 2-Pointers 39.3 34.4
Points From 3-Pointers 27.7 28.8
Points From Free Throws 13.5 7.1
Shooting STAN SJSU
Field Goals Made 28.9 26.8
Field Goals Attempted 55.9 61.3
Field Goal % 51.7% 43.7%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 17.2
2 Pointers Attempted 34.0 34.2
2 Point Shooting % 57.8% 50.2%
3 Pointers Made 9.2 9.6
3 Pointers Attempted 21.9 27.0
3 Point Shooting % 42.1% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 13.5 7.1
Free Throws Attempted 18.3 10.4
Free Throw % 73.9% 68.6%
Ball Control STAN SJSU
Rebounds 37.2 28.6
Rebounds - Defensive 29.8 22.3
Rebounds - Offensive 7.4 6.2
Turnovers 10.7 9.4
Blocked Shots 2.8 2.3
Steals 4.0 5.1
Fouls 11.2 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: San Jose St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats STAN SJSU
Total Possessions 70.5
Effective Scoring Chances 67.1 67.3
% of Possessions with STAN SJSU
2 Point Attempt 43.1% 44.0%
3 Point Attempt 27.8% 34.7%
Player Fouled 21.2% 15.9%
Turnover 15.2% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken STAN SJSU
Shot Blocked 3.8% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 24.8% 17.2%