NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LOU ND
Points 67.0 72.2
Total Points   139.1
Points From 2-Pointers 37.8 31.2
Points From 3-Pointers 14.5 26.9
Points From Free Throws 14.7 14.0
Shooting LOU ND
Field Goals Made 23.7 24.6
Field Goals Attempted 55.0 53.6
Field Goal % 43.1% 45.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.9 15.6
2 Pointers Attempted 38.1 29.2
2 Point Shooting % 49.6% 53.4%
3 Pointers Made 4.8 9.0
3 Pointers Attempted 16.9 24.4
3 Point Shooting % 28.5% 36.9%
Free Throws Made 14.7 14.0
Free Throws Attempted 19.9 19.0
Free Throw % 74.2% 73.7%
Ball Control LOU ND
Rebounds 32.0 33.8
Rebounds - Defensive 23.5 25.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 8.2
Turnovers 10.2 11.8
Blocked Shots 3.1 2.6
Steals 5.4 6.4
Fouls 14.4 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Louisville

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LOU ND
Total Possessions 68.9
Effective Scoring Chances 67.2 65.3
% of Possessions with LOU ND
2 Point Attempt 48.5% 37.3%
3 Point Attempt 21.6% 31.1%
Player Fouled 22.5% 20.9%
Turnover 14.8% 17.1%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken LOU ND
Shot Blocked 4.9% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 24.9% 25.8%