NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BALL M-OH
Points 67.8 70.1
Total Points   137.9
Points From 2-Pointers 30.8 33.7
Points From 3-Pointers 20.5 25.1
Points From Free Throws 16.5 11.3
Shooting BALL M-OH
Field Goals Made 22.2 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 53.3 57.3
Field Goal % 41.7% 44.0%
2 Pointers Made 15.4 16.8
2 Pointers Attempted 32.7 35.6
2 Point Shooting % 47.2% 47.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 8.4
3 Pointers Attempted 20.7 21.8
3 Point Shooting % 33.0% 38.5%
Free Throws Made 16.5 11.3
Free Throws Attempted 21.2 15.7
Free Throw % 77.8% 71.5%
Ball Control BALL M-OH
Rebounds 35.9 32.1
Rebounds - Defensive 27.4 25.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 7.1
Turnovers 11.9 10.1
Blocked Shots 2.9 3.1
Steals 4.9 6.4
Fouls 14.3 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: Miami (OH)

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BALL M-OH
Total Possessions 69.8
Effective Scoring Chances 66.4 66.8
% of Possessions with BALL M-OH
2 Point Attempt 41.1% 45.6%
3 Point Attempt 26.0% 27.9%
Player Fouled 24.4% 20.4%
Turnover 17.1% 14.5%
Opponent Steal 9.1% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken BALL M-OH
Shot Blocked 5.4% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 25.3% 20.5%