NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LOU MD
Points 63.4 74.0
Total Points   137.4
Points From 2-Pointers 34.6 35.6
Points From 3-Pointers 12.1 19.7
Points From Free Throws 16.7 18.7
Shooting LOU MD
Field Goals Made 21.4 24.4
Field Goals Attempted 52.7 53.1
Field Goal % 40.5% 45.9%
2 Pointers Made 17.3 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 38.3 32.3
2 Point Shooting % 45.3% 55.2%
3 Pointers Made 4.0 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 14.5 20.8
3 Point Shooting % 27.9% 31.5%
Free Throws Made 16.7 18.7
Free Throws Attempted 22.5 25.6
Free Throw % 74.2% 73.1%
Ball Control LOU MD
Rebounds 31.8 35.2
Rebounds - Defensive 23.3 25.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 9.4
Turnovers 12.6 10.7
Blocked Shots 2.7 4.5
Steals 4.8 6.8
Fouls 17.5 17.6

Playing Style Advantage: Louisville

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LOU MD
Total Possessions 70.2
Effective Scoring Chances 66.2 68.9
% of Possessions with LOU MD
2 Point Attempt 47.5% 40.0%
3 Point Attempt 18.0% 25.8%
Player Fouled 25.0% 25.0%
Turnover 17.9% 15.3%
Opponent Steal 9.7% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken LOU MD
Shot Blocked 8.6% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 24.8% 28.8%