NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UVM PROV
Points 61.4 68.8
Total Points   130.2
Points From 2-Pointers 27.5 31.9
Points From 3-Pointers 23.1 23.5
Points From Free Throws 10.8 13.4
Shooting UVM PROV
Field Goals Made 21.5 23.8
Field Goals Attempted 56.9 56.3
Field Goal % 37.7% 42.3%
2 Pointers Made 13.7 16.0
2 Pointers Attempted 34.1 31.4
2 Point Shooting % 40.4% 50.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 22.9 24.9
3 Point Shooting % 33.7% 31.5%
Free Throws Made 10.8 13.4
Free Throws Attempted 15.0 17.9
Free Throw % 71.9% 74.5%
Ball Control UVM PROV
Rebounds 32.7 39.4
Rebounds - Defensive 26.4 30.9
Rebounds - Offensive 6.3 8.5
Turnovers 9.1 9.2
Blocked Shots 2.9 5.0
Steals 5.5 5.1
Fouls 14.3 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: Vermont

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UVM PROV
Total Possessions 67.8
Effective Scoring Chances 65.0 67.1
% of Possessions with UVM PROV
2 Point Attempt 44.8% 40.5%
3 Point Attempt 30.1% 32.2%
Player Fouled 20.1% 21.1%
Turnover 13.5% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken UVM PROV
Shot Blocked 9.0% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 17.0% 24.4%